forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions

207 rows sorted by winflag

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year

Link rowid state year candidate forecast_prob result winflag ▼
201 Wisconsin 2012 Baldwin 0.21 Loss 0
203 Wyoming 2008 Rothfuss 0.0 Lose 0
205 Wyoming 2012 Chestnut 0.0 Loss 0
207 Wyoming (special election) 2008 Carter 0.0 Lose 0
1 Alabama 2008 Sessions 1.0 Win 1
3 Alabama 2010 Shelby 1.0 Win 1
5 Alaska 2008 Begich 1.0 Win 1
8 Alaska 2010 Murkowski 0.21 Win 1
10 Arizona 2010 Glassman 1.0 Win 1
12 Arizona 2012 Flake 0.96 Win 1
14 Arkansas 2008 Pryor 1.0 Win 1
15 Arkansas 2010 Boozman 1.0 Win 1
17 California 2012 Feinstein 1.0 Win 1
19 Colorado 2008 M. Udall 1.0 Win 1
22 Colorado 2010 Bennett 0.35 Win 1
23 Connecticut 2010 Blumenthal 1.0 Win 1
25 Connecticut 2012 Murphy 0.96 Win 1
27 Delaware 2008 Biden 1.0 Win 1
29 Delaware 2010 Coons 1.0 Win 1
31 Delaware 2012 Carper 1.0 Win 1
33 Florida 2010 Rubio 0.97 Win 1
36 Florida 2012 Nelson 1.0 Win 1
38 Georgia 2008 Chambilss 0.88 Win 1
40 Georgia 2010 Isakson 1.0 Win 1
42 Hawaii 2010 Inouye 1.0 Win 1
44 Hawaii 2012 Hirono 1.0 Win 1
46 Idaho 2008 Risch 1.0 Win 1
48 Idaho 2010 Crapo 1.0 Win 1
50 Illinois 2008 Durbin 1.0 Win 1
52 Illinois 2010 Kirk 0.69 Win 1
54 Indiana 2010 Coats 1.0 Win 1
56 Indiana 2012 Donnelly 0.7 Win 1
58 Iowa 2008 Harkin 1.0 Win 1
60 Iowa 2010 Grassley 1.0 Win 1
62 Kansas 2008 Roberts 1.0 Win 1
64 Kansas 2010 Moran 1.0 Win 1
66 Kentucky 2008 McConnell 0.92 Win 1
68 Kentucky 2010 Paul 1.0 Win 1
70 Louisiana 2008 Landireu 1.0 Win 1
72 Louisiana 2010 Vitter 1.0 Win 1
74 Maine 2008 Collins 1.0 Win 1
76 Maine 2012 King 0.93 Win 1
79 Maryland 2010 Murkowski 1.0 Win 1
81 Maryland 2012 Cardin 1.0 Win 1
83 Massachusetts 2008 Kerry 1.0 Win 1
85 Massachusetts 2012 Warren 0.94 Win 1
87 Michigan 2008 Levin 1.0 Win 1
89 Michigan 2012 Stabenow 1.0 Win 1
91 Minnesota 2008 Franken 0.52 Win 1
93 Minnesota 2012 Klobuchar 1.0 Win 1
95 Mississippi 2008 Cochran 1.0 Win 1
97 Mississippi 2012 Wicker 1.0 Win 1
99 Mississippi (special election) 2008 Wicker 0.94 Win 1
101 Missouri 2010 Blunt 0.99 Win 1
103 Missouri 2012 McCaskill 0.98 Win 1
105 Montana 2008 Baucus 1.0 Win 1
107 Montana 2012 Rehberg 0.66 Win 1
109 Nebraska 2008 Johanns 0.99 Win 1
111 Nebraska 2012 Fischer 0.99 Win 1
114 Nevada 2010 Reid 0.17 Win 1
115 Nevada 2012 Heller 0.83 Win 1
117 New Hampshire 2008 Shaheen 0.99 Win 1
119 New Hampshire 2010 Ayotte 1.0 Win 1
121 New Jersey 2008 Lautenberg 1.0 Win 1
123 New Jersey 2012 Menendez 1.0 Win 1
125 New Mexico 2008 T. Udall 1.0 Win 1
127 New Mexico 2012 Heinrich 0.97 Win 1
129 New York 2010 Schumer 1.0 Win 1
131 New York 2012 Gillibrand 1.0 Win 1
133 New York (special election) 2010 Gillibrand 1.0 Win 1
135 North Carolina 2008 Hagan 0.88 Win 1
137 North Carolina 2010 Burr 1.0 Win 1
139 North Dakota 2010 Hoeven 1.0 Win 1
142 North Dakota 2012 Heitkamp 0.08 Win 1
143 Ohio 2010 Portman 1.0 Win 1
145 Ohio 2012 Brown 0.97 Win 1
147 Oklahoma 2008 Inhofe 1.0 Win 1
149 Oklahoma 2010 Coburn 1.0 Win 1
151 Oregon 2008 Merkley 0.92 Win 1
153 Oregon 2010 Wyden 1.0 Win 1
155 Pennsylvania 2010 Toomey 0.97 Win 1
157 Pennsylvania 2012 Casey 0.99 Win 1
159 Rhode Island 2008 Reed 1.0 Win 1
161 Rhode Island 2012 Whitehouse 1.0 Win 1
163 South Carolina 2008 Graham 1.0 Win 1
165 South Carolina 2010 DeMint 1.0 Win 1
167 South Dakota 2008 Johnson 1.0 Win 1
169 South Dakota 2010 Thune 1.0 Win 1
170 Tennessee 2008 Alexander 1.0 Win 1
172 Tennessee 2012 Corker 1.0 Win 1
174 Texas 2008 Cornyn 1.0 Win 1
176 Texas 2012 Cruz 1.0 Win 1
178 Utah 2010 Lee 1.0 Win 1
180 Utah 2012 Hatch 1.0 Win 1
182 Vermont 2010 Leahy 1.0 Win 1
184 Vermont 2012 Sanders 1.0 Win 1
186 Virginia 2008 Warner 1.0 Win 1
188 Virginia 2012 Kaine 0.88 Win 1
190 Washington 2010 Murray 0.8 Win 1
192 Washington 2012 Cantwell 0.88 Win 1

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CREATE TABLE "forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions" (
"state" TEXT,
  "year" INTEGER,
  "candidate" TEXT,
  "forecast_prob" REAL,
  "result" TEXT,
  "winflag" INTEGER
);
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