forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions

207 rows

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Link rowid state year candidate forecast_prob result winflag
101 Missouri 2010 Blunt 0.99 Win 1
102 Missouri 2010 Carnahan 0.01 Loss 0
103 Missouri 2012 McCaskill 0.98 Win 1
104 Missouri 2012 Akin 0.02 Loss 0
105 Montana 2008 Baucus 1.0 Win 1
106 Montana 2008 Kelleher 0.0 Lose 0
107 Montana 2012 Rehberg 0.66 Win 1
108 Montana 2012 Tester 0.34 Loss 0
109 Nebraska 2008 Johanns 0.99 Win 1
110 Nebraska 2008 Kleeb 0.01 Lose 0
111 Nebraska 2012 Fischer 0.99 Win 1
112 Nebraska 2012 Kerrey 0.01 Loss 0
113 Nevada 2010 Angle 0.83 Loss 0
114 Nevada 2010 Reid 0.17 Win 1
115 Nevada 2012 Heller 0.83 Win 1
116 Nevada 2012 Berkeley 0.17 Loss 0
117 New Hampshire 2008 Shaheen 0.99 Win 1
118 New Hampshire 2008 Sununu 0.01 Lose 0
119 New Hampshire 2010 Ayotte 1.0 Win 1
120 New Hampshire 2010 Hodes 0.0 Loss 0
121 New Jersey 2008 Lautenberg 1.0 Win 1
122 New Jersey 2008 Zimmer 0.0 Lose 0
123 New Jersey 2012 Menendez 1.0 Win 1
124 New Jersey 2012 Kyrillos 0.0 Loss 0
125 New Mexico 2008 T. Udall 1.0 Win 1
126 New Mexico 2008 Pearce 0.0 Lose 0
127 New Mexico 2012 Heinrich 0.97 Win 1
128 New Mexico 2012 Wilson 0.03 Loss 0
129 New York 2010 Schumer 1.0 Win 1
130 New York 2010 Townsend 0.0 Loss 0
131 New York 2012 Gillibrand 1.0 Win 1
132 New York 2012 Long 0.0 Loss 0
133 New York (special election) 2010 Gillibrand 1.0 Win 1
134 New York (special election) 2010 DioGuardi 0.0 Loss 0
135 North Carolina 2008 Hagan 0.88 Win 1
136 North Carolina 2008 Dole 0.12 Lose 0
137 North Carolina 2010 Burr 1.0 Win 1
138 North Carolina 2010 Marshall 0.0 Loss 0
139 North Dakota 2010 Hoeven 1.0 Win 1
140 North Dakota 2010 Potter 0.0 Loss 0
141 North Dakota 2012 Berg 0.92 Loss 0
142 North Dakota 2012 Heitkamp 0.08 Win 1
143 Ohio 2010 Portman 1.0 Win 1
144 Ohio 2010 Fisher 0.0 Loss 0
145 Ohio 2012 Brown 0.97 Win 1
146 Ohio 2012 Mandel 0.03 Loss 0
147 Oklahoma 2008 Inhofe 1.0 Win 1
148 Oklahoma 2008 Rice 0.0 Lose 0
149 Oklahoma 2010 Coburn 1.0 Win 1
150 Oklahoma 2010 Rogers 0.0 Loss 0
151 Oregon 2008 Merkley 0.92 Win 1
152 Oregon 2008 Smith 0.08 Lose 0
153 Oregon 2010 Wyden 1.0 Win 1
154 Oregon 2010 Huffman 0.0 Loss 0
155 Pennsylvania 2010 Toomey 0.97 Win 1
156 Pennsylvania 2010 Sestak 0.03 Loss 0
157 Pennsylvania 2012 Casey 0.99 Win 1
158 Pennsylvania 2012 Smith 0.01 Loss 0
159 Rhode Island 2008 Reed 1.0 Win 1
160 Rhode Island 2008 Tingle 0.0 Lose 0
161 Rhode Island 2012 Whitehouse 1.0 Win 1
162 Rhode Island 2012 Hinkley 0.0 Loss 0
163 South Carolina 2008 Graham 1.0 Win 1
164 South Carolina 2008 Conley 0.0 Lose 0
165 South Carolina 2010 DeMint 1.0 Win 1
166 South Carolina 2010 Greene 0.0 Loss 0
167 South Dakota 2008 Johnson 1.0 Win 1
168 South Dakota 2008 Dykstra 0.0 Lose 0
169 South Dakota 2010 Thune 1.0 Win 1
170 Tennessee 2008 Alexander 1.0 Win 1
171 Tennessee 2008 Tuke 0.0 Lose 0
172 Tennessee 2012 Corker 1.0 Win 1
173 Tennessee 2012 Clayton 0.0 Loss 0
174 Texas 2008 Cornyn 1.0 Win 1
175 Texas 2008 Noriega 0.0 Lose 0
176 Texas 2012 Cruz 1.0 Win 1
177 Texas 2012 Sadler 0.0 Loss 0
178 Utah 2010 Lee 1.0 Win 1
179 Utah 2010 Granato 0.0 Loss 0
180 Utah 2012 Hatch 1.0 Win 1
181 Utah 2012 Lowell 0.0 Loss 0
182 Vermont 2010 Leahy 1.0 Win 1
183 Vermont 2010 Britton 0.0 Loss 0
184 Vermont 2012 Sanders 1.0 Win 1
185 Vermont 2012 MacGovern 0.0 Loss 0
186 Virginia 2008 Warner 1.0 Win 1
187 Virginia 2008 Gilmore 0.0 Lose 0
188 Virginia 2012 Kaine 0.88 Win 1
189 Virginia 2012 Allen 0.12 Loss 0
190 Washington 2010 Murray 0.8 Win 1
191 Washington 2010 Rossi 0.2 Loss 0
192 Washington 2012 Cantwell 0.88 Win 1
193 Washington 2012 Baumgartner 0.12 Loss 0
194 West Virginia 2010 Manchin 0.89 Win 1
195 West Virginia 2010 Raese 0.11 Loss 0
196 West Virginia 2012 Manchin 0.92 Win 1
197 West Virginia 2012 Raese 0.08 Loss 0
198 Wisconsin 2010 Johnson 0.97 Win 1
199 Wisconsin 2010 Feingold 0.03 Loss 0
200 Wisconsin 2012 Thompson 0.79 Win 1

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CREATE TABLE "forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions" (
"state" TEXT,
  "year" INTEGER,
  "candidate" TEXT,
  "forecast_prob" REAL,
  "result" TEXT,
  "winflag" INTEGER
);
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